My wet dream - Morales is only -300 against Chavez

[almly]

I think Morales is P4P one of the top 5 fighters in the world hands down. I'd put him around #3. I think he is a god to the game. I remember seeing Chavez fight against Mayweather in San Fran when they had Manny on the undercard in that draw getting headbutted.

There is no way in hell Chavez beats Morales. I am DUMPING on this fight. I hope one of the stip casinos has a line on this.

 

[hardcorecap]

where did you find that line? Im sure it will move fast. Thanks.

 

[almly]

All of my lines I get from Olympic.

 

[valdosta]

Morales started at -300, dropped to -280 then went back to -300 (at Olympic). Personally I think Chavez is a tough fighter and Morales isn't really a lock.

 

[sphincter]

chavez is a very tough guy....a little short..not a huge puncher....a good puncher,though......but very tough...and physically strong...

i have to say that i was very impressed with morales vs guty espadas...

i always thought that morales looked emaciated at featherweight.....gaunt...and he looked weak vs barrera....

he looked much more natural vs espadas....better in the ring...and physically more normal...his face,arms and legs had more weight...he didn`t look spent....

as much as i admire chavez,he`s a limited guy...he can jab a bit...but he has to come forward....and that may be dangerous.....

he has a solid chin...this could be one of those long,hard fights....and chavez will take punishment...he`ll have to take punishment,to give it to the taller morales....

another over,maybe?....the odds are reasonable...

my gut says morales is an elite fighter....chavez a step below that....


they`re makin` you pay for morales....

a war.....i see a long,hard fight.....the question is,even at the higher weight,is morales just plain on another level as a fighter.....i tend to think so....

 

[almly]

I would beg to differ on the over Spinch. I think Morales KO's or TKo's him here. Youre right, these guys arent on the same level. I dont think Chavez's chin is all that great either. Castillo, Sosa, and a bunch of other guys can go the distance with Floyd and be competitive. Chavez gets KO'd. Personally although these guys arent at the same weight level and Floyd is heavier now - I think Morales's is a better fighter who has more power.

Morales KO's Chavez here. Its just a matter of when. I agree that Chavez is a limited fighter. I've seen him one other time and I these he's decent but by no means great.

 

[valdosta]

Chavez has a style that typically troubles Morales. Guys who come forward, have a good chin and throw a lot of punches give Morales a tough time. His fights with Chi and McCullough were rough in spots although he won both because of there style. MAB was always effective IMO when he came forward. This is not an easy fight for Morales at all.

Another thing, about Chavez getting stopped by Mayweather, it was because he punched himself out. It's not like he ever got dropped, I think he could have made the distance EASILY had he not attacked Mayweather so hard from the beginning. A lot of guys won't press PBF as soon as they get a taste of his speed. Chavez didn't care, he kept coming.

 

[almly]

I see what youre saying about the punching himself out thing and maybe youre right. It sounds kind of like an excuse as to why he got knocked out though. I think Morales is one of the ELITE fighters in the world. I have seen him fight alot but it was the Paulie Ayala fight where he clearly demonstrated that for me.

I dont understand why you are so impressed with Chavez. He hasnt really beat a top fighter before and he didnt appear all that skilled the last time I watched him. I'll make a big play on this fight if I get the opportunity.

 

[valdosta]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by almly:
I see what youre saying about the punching himself out thing and maybe youre right. It sounds kind of like an excuse as to why he got knocked out though. I think Morales is one of the ELITE fighters in the world. I have seen him fight alot but it was the Paulie Ayala fight where he clearly demonstrated that for me.

I dont understand why you are so impressed with Chavez. He hasnt really beat a top fighter before and he didnt appear all that skilled the last time I watched him. I'll make a big play on this fight if I get the opportunity.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Nah, I am not that impressed with Chavez. It's just I think his style will trouble Morales. AS for Chavez being punched out against Mayweather, it's not really an excuse. Just an observation. The guy was averaging 100+ punches per a round. Also, he didn't get knocked out, he was taking to many shots so his corner stopped it. Personally, I thought they stopped it to early. All I am saying is that Chavez has a good chin. He will press the fight,throw a lot of punches. His handspeed isn't half bad either so Morales will have to counter punch him and get his respect. Chavez is tough to box because he pressures so hard and Morales will get into a war if pressed hard. If Morales could stick to boxing it would be an easier fight. If he wars with Chavez he could conceivably lose.

BTW- I took Morales at -280 at 5dimes the other night. I realize the risks though, it's not a sure thing.

 

[almly]

It dosent matter if the corner stopped it or the ref stopped it. It's a knockout. If the same thing happens against Morales its ruled as a knockout and the under will win (assuming it happens under the over/under). I actually like the will or will not go the distance bet. If Morales can handle Barreras best stuff when he's coming forward Im sure he can take Chavez's. Also, if Chavez lost against Pretty Boy because he went all out and didnt leave anything for the latter rounds I like it even more. If thats his best stuff Im definitely not impressed.

If anyone has a chin it's Morales. I'm just not worried about him losing this fight. Taking him at -280 is a great play. You did good.

I also think Sosa has a chance to beat the unproven Cotto on the undercard. Thats a possible value play if Cotto is a big favorite.

 

[valdosta]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by almly:
It dosent matter if the corner stopped it or the ref stopped it. It's a knockout. If the same thing happens against Morales its ruled as a knockout and the under will win (assuming it happens under the over/under). I actually like the will or will not go the distance bet. If Morales can handle Barreras best stuff when he's coming forward Im sure he can take Chavez's. Also, if Chavez lost against Pretty Boy because he went all out and didnt leave anything for the latter rounds I like it even more. If thats his best stuff Im definitely not impressed.

If anyone has a chin it's Morales. I'm just not worried about him losing this fight. Taking him at -280 is a great play. You did good.

I also think Sosa has a chance to beat the unproven Cotto on the undercard. Thats a possible value play if Cotto is a big favorite.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

AS far as the over/under goes, you are correct, it don;t matter how the fight ended. I am saying I don't think it's fair to say a guy has a suspect chin because his corner stopped the fight though. He was never knocked down or on wobbly legs. Regardless, we can agree to disagree.

5dimes opened Cotto-Sosa at an absolutely ridiculous -1700/+1100. Cotto has very good skills and can move quite well but his chin is untested. Sosa can punch a little bit. That might be worth a very small play. Personally I would have opened Cotto around -900 if I made the odds.

 

[almly]

God, I am on that. I cant believe that line - unreal. That is an awesome value play.

 

[tonymontana+]

morales is -260 at sportingbetusa.
I am not at this book. I believe he was as low as -220. But i wrote the regulation and they take your money if you are inactive for 12 months. i didnt like that.
In my opinon Morales can be outworked if he is not 100% in the fight.
Chavez is tough and throws a lot of punches.
I will probably bet a little on dec Chavez, should be around +600 or higher.

 

[Big-KO]

If you want to lay money on Sosa at 5dimes you Better hurry... 5dimes are the biggest fukin copycatters on the net... as soon as another book posts the proper line for a fight, they switch their odds. They copy olypmic and wsex all the time. I notice last weekend when WSEX posted their props for Margarito, a few hours later 5dimes posted the exact same props.